That's one of the problems with seeing the Aurora. Why? Because you simply didn't know about it. Let's say two months from now the Aurora is flaring up in your area - the sky is ablaze with greens, violets and reds - but instead of watching it, you're home sitting on the couch. Also, if you're not sure which way is north, don't forget to bring a compass. Check the Kp maps (above) and the size of the aurora oval (also above). The stronger the Aurora the more south one can see it. While they have seen Auroral sub-storms as far down as Cuba, realistically north is where you need to be. Cold and clear are best for viewing the Aurora: Here's how the moon looks right now:Īuroras happen in the upper atmosphere, so if there is cloud cover, you are out of luck.
#NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST TONIGHT FULL#
Full moons hurt a bit because they increase ambient light and darkness is best for viewing. The further away from those earth based light sources the better for seeing the Northern Lights. But you also want few competing light sources so get away from the city lights and let your eyes adjust to the darkness. So late, nighttime (or early morning) dark tends to be best.
It is important to remember the widest part of the Aurora is when the sun is on the opposite side of the earth. The number closest to earth will hit first.ĭark. Remember, it's best for Bz to be negative, and the more negative, the better. Think of each number representing a 5 minute long cloud of solar wind speeding towards earth. They are given in the order they'll hit earth, with the first 5 minute average hitting first. These 5 minute stream segments are all headed towards earth. This data comes from a satellite about 1 million miles from earth.
The more negative the better.Įach number in the diagram below represents a rolling 5 minute average of the Bz taken along the length of the solar wind stream. A negative Bz helps the solar wind grab the earth's magnetic field which can more easily lead to an Aurora. Although an Aurora can happen with a positive Bz, a negative Bz is generally better. The Aurora might be visible at 45 degrees, 30 degrees or even lower on the horizon depending on its brightness.īz is the solar wind's magnetic orientation in the up/down direction. The area of a visible aurora is greater because it can be seen at spots other than 90 degrees directly up (straight above your head). The size of a visible Aurora will be bigger than what is shown on this map, because the map gives the overhead location of the Aurora. It's a good sign if you see a thick aurora band with some areas of light yellow, orange or, better yet, RED on this map as opposed to just a thin (or transparent) band with only dark green. It gives a 20 to 40 minute forecast of the predicted size of the aurora along with a color-coded probability of seeing the aurora over various spots on the Earth. But keep in mind that Ovation is an average, so it changes more slowly than the more dynamic Kp forecast above. The Kp number gives nice info on how large the storm is, but the Ovation map does a better job of telling you if you can actually see it. It's helpful to get confirmation of activity with NOAA's Ovation map. Be aware though, ground based light pollution and weather will have a greater impact at these more marginal locations. You might even be in luck if you are located within next lower line, but you will have to look lower on the horizon. If you are located at or above the estimated Kp line, you are in the right spot.
Now, find the Kp number line on one of the following maps that matches the Kp number predicted above. Get Aurora Alerts customized for your location.
#NORTHERN LIGHTS FORECAST TONIGHT UPDATE#
( Refresh this page to update the above, it is updated on the server every 2 minutes) In 12 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1 - Quiet In 8 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1 - Quiet In 4 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 1 - Quiet The Soft Serve News Aurora Prediction Program estimates that. Here is the prediction of storm intensity for the next few minutes (the higher the Kp number, the larger the Aurora): Here are some tools that will increase your chances. If you are out there, you need to be patient and lucky. They have stops and starts (known as sub-storms). Auroras are difficult to predict with precision.
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